A friendly wager

It’s on. A handicap, that is. I talked with Christopher yesterday and we agreed that it couldn’t hurt anything to go ahead and start recording some rounds officially in order to establish a handicap. So, I got a GHIN number for the first time (for those non-golfers out there GHIN is: Golf Handicap and Information Network number) and am going to start putting my rounds in later this week.

You need about 10 rounds to start getting an average and 20 rounds before you really have an official handicap. I will probably play one or two full 18 hole rounds a week and perhaps the same 9-hole rounds, so it will take three to four weeks to get my first real handicap. But, in the meantime, any guesses as to what it will be when I have the requisite number of rounds? For the record, I will be playing from the white tees with a 6-iron, 8-iron, PW, 56 degree, 52 degree and putter.

Don’t worry about hurting my feelings with a high number, it’s early in the learning stage still and I have thick skin

A handicap is just a number, but it provides another measuring stick of progress. I’m not going to put much emphasis on the number or think about it while training, but at least I will be able to answer everyone’s first question when I tell them about what I do…

Guess away!

30 Responses to "A friendly wager"

Tim Leeds says:

August 23, 2011 at 5:35 pm

Consistency is a hugely difficult thing when still learning, but would hope at this stage you’d be off maybe 15. Good luck with it though and hope you prove me wrong with single figures
Derek Hazelwood says:

August 23, 2011 at 6:47 pm

My guess is 18. Which I must say is very commendable due to your lack of clubs. I had no idea that it was that easy to get a handicap! Can you input info in from previous rounds that you have documented, or do you have to start fresh? Good luck!
williamevanl says:

August 23, 2011 at 6:59 pm

Awesome! I think you will be a 13-15 handicap now, If I have to guess officially I will say 14.

At 4000 hours (in), you will be a around a 7 or 8.
6000 hours 4 handicap
8000 hours 3 handicap
10,000 hours 2.9…
James says:

August 23, 2011 at 8:07 pm

I agree, I think you’ll be a 13 Dan, maybe even a 12
Bobby says:

August 24, 2011 at 12:29 am

Based off the first couple of rounds you posted I’d say you’ll start off at around 16-18 handicap. Based on your progress I think you’ll go down significantly quicker than most golfers who attempt to lower their handicap. I legitimately think you have a shot at being a scratch golfer in one more year. The next three years after that will be improving yourself from a scratch golfer to a potential qualifier at Q school.
Marcus says:

August 24, 2011 at 1:36 am

It´s hard not to “put much emphasis” on the number…

I think you will get 17!

Good luck (not with the number, but with your playing
Tommy says:

August 24, 2011 at 3:34 am

I am from ireland an i just recently went through getting my handicap. the system over here is you just complete 3 rounds and hand in your card. I shot 89,87,86 and got a handicap of 14(the par is 71 for the course). So if you were irish and shooting 41 front nine therefore saying 82 for 18 hole(not sure of the par of your course), that means you would be looking at <=10 i think. Pretty good!!!!
Jeff says:

August 24, 2011 at 8:00 am

Based on a pseudo-scientific approach (created random data set and used the handicap formula from there), my guess is 16.
Tom says:

August 24, 2011 at 8:18 am

Remember that a handicap reflects only an average of the score you are capable of shooting. The problem for you Dan is that you are playing on a Par 3 course with less than a full bag. So I don’t think a handicap at this point is really going to tell you anything other than what you are capable of shooting on a mini-course with a wedge and a putter. (I know you have a few more clubs). But it won’t tell what you are capable of shooting against other golfers using a full set of clubs on a real course which is the purpose of a handicap.

My other concern is that it might create a false impression of progress that will be undone quickly when you shoot a round with a full set of clubs on a real course. So for example, let’s say you are a 9 handicap by the time you get to using a driver. But you start shooting in 100′s on a Par 18. Your low handicap will actually hurt you because you won’t get the strokes you need to be competitive against other superior golfers.

Put me down in the “don’t do it” category.
Tom says:

August 24, 2011 at 8:20 am

Correction, I meant Par 71 18 holes.
Jeff says:

August 24, 2011 at 9:08 am

Tom — read the rest of his blog entries. He’s playing on the full-size course now, albeit from the white tees. And if he keeps adding clubs per his plan and gets to a 9 handicap with a 3 wood as the longest club in his bag, how exactly do you figure that he’s going to magically regress from a 9 handicap to a 25 just by adding a driver??
Tom says:

August 24, 2011 at 11:02 am

Jeff: Not very carefully. Dan has only played a full 18 one time from the White tees using a 6 iron as his highest club. From the whites you have a handicap of 69.8 and a slope of 123. That is very easy.

So lets say Dan establishes a lower handicap from the Whites using a limited set of irons. When he jumps up to higher clubs and the Blue or Black Tees there will be a learning curve and a loss in accuracy which will translate into a higher score. So his handicap will not be a reflection of the use of a full set of clubs from the correct tees. A lower handicap is not valid if it does not reflect what you are likely to score. So you are at a competitive disadvantage if you try to compete because you will not get the proper number of strokes against your competition. It is also not giving you an accurate reflection of your progess at a momement in time.
Micke says:

August 24, 2011 at 9:33 pm

Congratulations on your hole-in-one Dan!!!

That must have been an awesome feeling. (For those who missed it, check the stopwatch ;))
Then the handicap guess; I’d say you will get a handicap of 15,2 (to be exact) but by the end of the year you are probably almost a single handicapper.

@Tom, I don’t think Dan will use his Par-3 rounds to establish a handicap, only the ones played on a full-long 18 hole course. But, I’m only guessing here. To play with less than a full bag to establish a handicap is not a problem in my opinion. I started playing with a 4-hybrid as my longest club and did so for almost two years before adding a driver. And something tells my that when Dan finally gets the coveted driver he will not immediately take it out on the course, but will spend some 200+ hours on the range.
I’m not that familiar with the handicap system in the US (I’m from Finland) but doesn’t tee selection affect handicap? I mean, aren’t all tees “correct”? If you play from a forward tee you have a harder time getting a low handicap (because the course plays easier) and once you move further back you get a few extra strokes on your course handicap, right? So, when Dan moves back to Blue and Black tees he will get the proper number of strokes.

P.S. Dan, you are a good inspiration! I will take tomorrow off from work and head down to the golf club. I’ll start with a few hours of short game practice (something I haven’t done all season!) and only then play 18 holes.
Charlie says:

August 25, 2011 at 1:45 am

14th comment: 14.
Martin says:

August 25, 2011 at 2:27 am

Ok, my guess is 20 (a little less pressure).
Good luck with it Dan. I look forward to watching your numbers.
Quiet Jim says:

August 25, 2011 at 5:58 am

19, just to get you fired up. GL
Tom says:

August 25, 2011 at 11:25 am

Micke:

I think you are partially correct but your handicap is primarily driven by your score relative to Par. The number is adjusted slightly for the slope. But, it won’t tell you what your handicap might if you jump back two tees. The system assumes that you are playing from the tees from where you reporting your score. That is why you can play a woman with a handicap and play a competive round wihtout playing from the same tees.

Let me give you an example. At my home course, if I jump forward to the ladies tees I can eliminate the driver from my bag and hit either mid-irons or a 5 wood off every tee. So if I have a good day putting, I will easily shoot par because virtually all of my second shots will be wedges and I will easily reach the Par 5′s in two. So my score relative to par will be much lower than it would be if I had to use clubs that are more difficult to control such as long irons and woods. That would definitely lower my handicap but it would not be an accurate reflection of what I would be likely to score from the men’s tees. So it would hurt me if I was to use the lower handicap against another player in a match.
williamevanl says:

August 25, 2011 at 9:47 pm

I think there’s a big misconception here about adding longer clubs and how it will create some immediate improvement. That certainly isn’t the case.
There’s a guy at my course that can shoot around par with an 8 iron but that doensn’t translate to him shooting 5 under with 14 clubs. It just means he can get around pretty well on a shortish course with a stock 150 yard shot and the lack of longer clubs means he’s not O.B or in the trees as much.

Longer clubs will allow someone to shoot their lowest round when they are playing well but it will also create the biggest blowups when the swing gets a little off kilter.
dan says:

August 26, 2011 at 9:15 am

Tom and Micke,

I’m loving this discussion you two are having about the positives and negatives of getting a handicap. It’s made me think quite a bit about what will happen down the road as I establish a handicap from the white tees, then add a 3-hybrid and establish one from the blues, then driver from the tips. I’m not sure where it will be, whether I can keep the same handicap through the different clubs and distances or if I will “start over” from each distance. regardless, I have started the process by logging in my first 9-hole round and will just see what happens, figure that is one way of going about it.

Thank you both for the comments, they are interesting and appreciated.

Dan
dan says:

August 26, 2011 at 9:23 am

It’s true William,

Some people have their consistent stick and if they played with just that they would never miss a fairway. My goal is to make each club my consistent stick as I get them; hopefully I will be just as comfortable with the 3-hybrid as I currently am with the 6-iron and ditto with the driver. Longer clubs definitely accentuate any blowups you might have, just need to get really good at recovery shots…
Tony says:

August 26, 2011 at 8:40 pm

Im going to guess 19.4
Eric says:

September 8, 2011 at 9:19 am

It looks like you and some of your readers first need to learn more about what a USGA handicap is!
Tom, for instance, is incorrect in stating “a handicap reflects only an average of the score you are capable of shooting.” NOT TRUE AT ALL. A Handicap Index reflects your potential ability and is computed based on differentials…the difference between your score and the course rating of the course played. An 80 on a course rated at 72.6 is far more impressive than a 79 on a course rated at 69.7. Lastly, a handicap index can be computed on as few as 5 scores (it uses the lowest differential), and then steps up to include more scores until you’ve posted 20 scores (at which time it uses the lowest 10 differentials). The formula is a little more complicated than just averaging those scores, too.
dan says:

September 9, 2011 at 8:44 pm

Eric,

Thanks for the light into the USGA handicap. I know I should look into exactly what a handicap is and how they figure out the number, but at this point I’m mainly concerned with developing solid mechanics. I appreciate the comment and the facts about the handicap, good to know that it’s not just an average of the scores I shoot..

Have a great one!
Paul says:

September 12, 2011 at 7:39 pm

Eric is correct Dan. I’ve heard it put another way. Your handicap is a reflection of your “average Best scores”.It is actually possible to maintain a current handicap while shooting those best scores only 25% of time.
dan says:

September 12, 2011 at 11:01 pm

Paul,

I’ve done a little reading on the handicap system and you guys are right, of course. I’m not really going to put much emphasis on the handicap, anyway, until it comes to the time where I need a certain number to enter specific tournaments. Until then, it is what it is.
Mark says:

September 13, 2011 at 5:26 pm

Thinking… Thinking…

My guess is: 11.7

Keep up the good work Dan, and good luck!

-Mark
Mark says:

September 13, 2011 at 6:20 pm

By the way… just to clarify, my guess relates to your first handicap that will be posted in a couple of days from now. (the 15th I think?)

What’s the prize for being closest?

Go get ‘em Dan!

-Mark
dan says:

September 14, 2011 at 9:09 am

Mark,

Think I’ll mail the winner a sleeve of Nike One Tour D golf balls with the Dan Plan logo on them. That’s about all I have to give right now and hopefully will be a suitable prize. I think you’re right, might be posted on the 15th. I have about 8 rounds to date..
Mark says:

September 14, 2011 at 10:11 pm

An incredible gift, Dan!

Best of luck to all.

-Mark
dan says:

September 24, 2011 at 8:54 am

Hello all, the handicap is in and it’s a 12.4. so, looks like you got closest Mark with your 11.7 prediction! Send me an email via the contact page and I’ll get that prize mailed out to you. Thank you all for the guesses and comments!

cheers,

Dan

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