Trending stats and graphs

A Dan Plan reader who also happens to be a physicist collected data and produced a few graphs which I think show interesting trends.

This first one is my handicap according to hours of practice. I first got a handicap after about 2,000 hours of training and at the time I still had just 7 clubs. The most recent handicap of 2.8 that was given last week is not included, this data is up to about 5,000 hours of training:

danPlanHC-trend

This next one is my handicap related to date. Not exactly linear, but to me it’s obvious when I made big changes in my swing and what came from them after the step backwards:
danPlanHCvsDate

This one is similar, but it’s how the handicap relates to the number of practice hours: danPlanHCvsHours

Then he charted out my rate of practice and how that has changed over time. What this demonstrates is that once I started playing full rounds my daily/weekly/monthly average practice hours actually decreased from when I was solely working on the putting green and range. Originally I was scheduled to finish October 2017, but at the new rate the final date should be closer to November 2019: danPlanHoursProj

This final one looks at my training rate from day one to the present day and shows a bit clearer how the average number of hours logged a day has slightly slowed since July 2013.
danPlanHoursRate

In other news I got the email yesterday saying I could officially play in the Oregon Am qualifier June 3rd. This is the first year where my handicap was low enough to get into the event and I am excited to give it a go. Last year 76 was the qualifying score to get into the actual Oregon Am. I have that number in the bag and if I play decent I should be able to progress. The actual Am is 36 hole stroke play and then the top 64 players get to move on to a 4 days of match play. One step at a time and my goal is to play well in the qualifier coming up soon.

13 Responses to "Trending stats and graphs"

mnikolic says:

May 23, 2014 at 4:20 pm

Awesome progress, Dan! Good luck at the Oregon Am.

Who put these stats together for you? I’d love to connect with them and discuss some projects I could use their analytical mind on. Might be a good consulting gig.
Hooper31 says:

May 25, 2014 at 10:41 am

Hi Dan,
Big fan of what you’re doing. Been following you weekly since the near the start. Just a comment on the first graph. That trendline likely won’t hold up to statistical analysis. It probably shouldn’t be linear. Your residuals will likely have a pattern indicating a curved graph (either a power function or an exponential). Would it be possible to share the table of data that generated the graph? I would love to share it with my statistics students.
thedanplan says:

May 25, 2014 at 12:02 pm

Hi Hooper,

That would be great if you want to take a look at the numbers. I believe he got the hours from the stopwatch page on the site, just click on the stopwatch and all of the hours are there. The handicap numbers and dates are on the stats page. Shoot me an email if you want anything else.

Thank you,

Dan
thedanplan says:

May 25, 2014 at 12:03 pm

Hi,

If you want to send me an email I’ll forward you his name and email.

Cheers,

Dan
3foot1 says:

May 25, 2014 at 5:29 pm

With the OAm qualifier coming soon, it would be fun to hear a little more about the course where you’ll qualify. My apologies if you’ve talked about it already. Have you played the course? What time of year, and what were the conditions? How long, how wide, how’s the rough, the sand… the whole works. How many practice rounds are you allowed, and will you play it with a coach or friend to plan your strategy? Are there any shot shapes/flights or clubs you’ll focus on in your preparation? Now that your game is more predictable and you know your strengths, it would be fun to hear how you prepare mentally and tactically for an important event.
bun says:

May 25, 2014 at 10:58 pm

Hi there,

That was me. Did this for Dan since I was very curious to see how his handicap changed as a function of the hours he put in. (mine is stuck at 14+-2 for years now !) The linear fit was just to guide the eye, and I told Dan that in reality it is very likely a curve that asymptotes to an approximately flat line. Tried some fits with various forms but the projections were all over the place. It would have been nice to have a couple more points in the [0,2000h] range. Tried also attributing h=36 at t=0 (max handicap) but that hardly helped. The ‘stepped’ shaped does not lend itself to straightforward curve fitting.

In any case one sees what I expected – ‘flat’ handicaps for extended periods then step jumps to a new level. Guessing that is when the ‘aha!’ happens and something new knowledge sticks. if this pattern persists then I think Dan has a good chance to be solidly ‘plus’ at t=10000h, though he may want to make the next ‘flat zones’ a little shorter than the last one … Very intrigued what the new devotion to playing rather than practising will do – he basically halved his handicap since starting that regimen.

interesting, and inspiring, stuff.

If you want the spreadsheet, just ask.

cheers,
marcello

P.S. Dan, I’ll say it again: I am AMAZED that you went from basically a non=athlete with h~36 to h~12 in just 18 months. Crazy. I’ve NEVER been that low and have been playing for about 10 years. Both depressing and inspirational.
bun says:

May 25, 2014 at 11:07 pm

Thanks, but my regular gig at work with the nuclear physics lab and at home with my two little boys precludes any extracurricular activity. I run to the course when some precious (but sadly terribly infrequent) hours come free…

That was simple data visualization 101 that any upper-year e.g. physics student could do rolling out of bed. Just walk on over to your nearest university or college and I’m sure you could secure some bright mind to help you out. and they work cheap

best wishes,
marcello
peter eller says:

May 26, 2014 at 9:42 am

that red dotted line on the first graph seems optimistic. the relationship is not linear. I see a curve that flattens over time taking into account the diminishing benefits of hours practiced. like drag in wind resistance you have to exponentially increase energy to continue to increase your speed. that graph looks to me like at 10k hrs your handicap will be 1 and it will take another 10k hours of practice to get to scratch. I don’t mean to be overly pessimistic but this graph indicated to me that you need to do something significantly different to change your trajectory.
zynthesis says:

May 27, 2014 at 1:11 pm

Dan,

Congrats on your new handicap. I’ve been watching your progress on and off and after coming back. I noticed there weren’t any new videos on your vimeo. What happened to the filming? If you have another site where you’re posting videos can you let me know. I really enjoyed them.
thedanplan says:

May 27, 2014 at 11:20 pm

Thanks Zynthesis,

I hope to shoot some more soon. I had a production team with me for a while there that was taking care of that stuff, but now that I’m out on my own just need to spend some more time shooting and editing and posting. Hopefully soon..

Dan
thedanplan says:

May 27, 2014 at 11:24 pm

Hi Charlie,

I hope to write a blog about all of this soon, it’s been a busy stretch and is about to get busier. My parents are coming to visit Thursday and we are all going to the coast for a few nights so from Thursday afternoon until the day of the qualifier I will not be playing or practicing. I’m not sure if this is a good thing of bad thing, but I had scheduled this gathering with the family months before the Oregon Am qualifier was in the books. I have played that course twice now, the last time being 2 weeks ago to see it before the qualifier. The first time was years ago when I only had 6 clubs. When I went 2 weeks ago the greens were sanded and recovering from being punched so I didn’t get a good feel for break, but know where to hit the ball now at least. I got my tee time today and will get the yardage of the tees we are playing soon and will hopefully post about all of this in more detail as a blog entry this weekend. There is more preparation going into the event, and I will write about it all shortly. Thank you!
Dan
Jim Bowerman says:

June 15, 2014 at 5:19 pm

where did you get that line from? I’ve done a fit with the available data and its no where near as pessimistic as you make it out to be. As you said, i don’t think his handicap will drop in a linear fashion, but when i run with with a exponential fit (which is what your yellow line represents), then i get dan ending at about a +2.5 at the 10000 hour mark
Pablo Stafforini says:

July 16, 2014 at 11:05 am

Did you manage to get a copy of the spreadsheet? If so, could you share with us a graph of the trendline that best fits the data?

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